2024 Federal Election Polling Data

Suraj Rampure

In [1]:
from datascience import *
import numpy as np
Table.interactive_plots()
In [2]:
pres = Table.read_table('data/president_primary_polls.csv')
In [3]:
pres
Out[3]:
question_id poll_id race_id cycle state pollster_id pollster sponsor_ids sponsors display_name pollster_rating_id pollster_rating_name fte_grade sample_size population population_full methodology office_type start_date end_date sponsor_candidate internal partisan tracking nationwide_batch created_at notes url stage party answer candidate_id candidate_name pct
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Harris 16661 Kamala D. Harris 34
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Obama 16660 Michelle Obama 20
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Buttigieg 16662 Pete Buttigieg 5
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Ocasio-Cortez 16664 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 3
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Cuomo 16663 Andrew Cuomo 2
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Booker 16666 Cory A. Booker 4
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Klobuchar 16671 Amy Klobuchar 4
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Hickenlooper 16665 John Wright Hickenlooper 2
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Patrick 16669 Deval Patrick 1
140650 74665 8915 2024 nan 294 McLaughlin & Associates nan nan McLaughlin & Associates 203 McLaughlin & Associates C/D 458 lv lv-d Online U.S. President 4/8/21 4/13/21 nan False nan False False 4/16/21 12:55 nan https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/202 ... primary DEM Gillibrand 16667 Kirsten E. Gillibrand 2

... (565 rows omitted)

In [4]:
pres.group('pollster')
Out[4]:
pollster count
Echelon Insights 65
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 35
Harris Insights & Analytics 13
Léger 113
McLaughlin & Associates 182
Morning Consult 41
PEM Management Corporation 7
Praecones Analytica 19
RMG Research 10
Remington Research Group 3

... (3 rows omitted)

In [5]:
# Selecting only relevant rows and columns
pres = pres.where('pollster', 'McLaughlin & Associates') \
           .select('start_date', 'end_date', 'party', 'candidate_name', 'pct')

pres
Out[5]:
start_date end_date party candidate_name pct
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Kamala D. Harris 34
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Michelle Obama 20
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Pete Buttigieg 5
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 3
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Andrew Cuomo 2
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Cory A. Booker 4
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Amy Klobuchar 4
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM John Wright Hickenlooper 2
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Deval Patrick 1
4/8/21 4/13/21 DEM Kirsten E. Gillibrand 2

... (172 rows omitted)

In [6]:
pres.where('party', 'DEM') \
    .pivot('start_date', 'candidate_name', 'pct', sum) \
    .select('candidate_name', '12/9/20', '2/24/21', '4/8/21') \
    .sort('4/8/21', descending = True) \
    .barh('candidate_name', 
          title = '2024 Democratic Primary Polls (McLaughlin & Associates)',
          xaxis_title = '%',
          yaxis_title = 'Candidate',
          width = 950, height = 700)

This dataset, downloaded from FiveThirtyEight contains information from various pollsters regarding the 2024 federal election primaries for both Democrats and Republicans.

The above visualization contains the results of McLaughin & Associates' polls for the Democratic primaries on December 9th, 2020, February 24th, 2021, and April 8th, 2021. It appears that while Michelle Obama was the early favorite, Kamala Harris is now the leading candidate per the polls. Gavin Newson made an entrance to the list in the most recent poll.